The penultimate week of the 2020 Queensland Festival of Democracy has seen campaign launches, a focus on South East Queensland and we’ll expect the parties to head north again.
Campaign Launches
Australian Labor Party
The ALP’s campaign was launched by the Premier at the Plumbing Industry Climate Action Centre in Beenleigh.
A number of big spending announcements included:
Free TAFE for students under 25
$100 million to support student mental health
$171 million in a new palliative care plan and a promise to introduce legislation on Voluntary Assisted Dying in February next year, together with a commitment that the ALP will have a conscience vote and that she will support the legislation
A commitment to employ 6190 new teachers and 1139 new teacher aids
A plan to add 7,775 jobs to frontline health services and invest $889 million in public hospital upgrades
Liberal National Party
The Leader of the Opposition launched the LNP’s campaign at the Emporium Hotel at South Bank.
Her key message was to point at Labor’s economic management, pointing the the State’s unemployment rate and debt levels. She also reminded voters of her pledge to achieve a 5% unemployment rate, harkening back to previous promises from former Premiers Peter Beattie and Campbell Newman.
The LNP’s regular refrain has been, “Don’t let last 5 months make you to forget what has happened in the last 5 years under Labor.”
She also promoted her:
New Bradfield Scheme in a pitch to the regions and the party’s agricultural base
The LNP’s $300 car rego promise
Plan to remove State taxes from sales of new campervans
100,000 jobs over 15 years by building a four-lane Bruce Highway from Curra to Cairns which the LNP is costing at $33 billion.
The LNP also released a flyover of the promised New Bradfield Scheme.
Ms Frecklington said a full budget will be produced within 100 days of the LNP taking office.
The Leaders
Premier
On Friday the Premier announced a $20 million commitment for the Sunshine Coast Stadium in the LNP held electorate of Kawana; and $35 million on a local road funding commitment. She also committed to making free tampons and pads available to students at 120 Queensland schools.
At Australia Zoo on Saturday, in the LNP held electorate of Caloundra, together with Tourism Minister Kate Jones, the Premier announced a new $74 million Rebuilding Tourism Plan to assist tourism operators.
Sunday marked the ALP’s official campaign launch.
On Monday the Premier started the day in Kirra in the electorate of Currumbin; and moved on to Nerang in the Labor held electorate of Gaven promoting the Government’s COVID-19 related small business assistance at Graham’s Natural Alternatives, a local business exporting skin treatment products. The Premier and Small Business Minister, Shannon Fentiman, promoted the Government’s $140 million Small Business Strategy to assist small business regional exporters to expand their markets.
Together with the Health Minister, the Premier also announced a new hospital will be built at Coomera, one of the fastest growing areas in the State and a key seat.
The Premier also hit the bowls green. Here is a special campaign moment from a reluctant participant.
On Tuesday, opening the Local Government Association conference, the Premier pledged:
$400 million for the Works for Queensland program to support up to 11,800 jobs.
$200 million for the SEQ Community Stimulus Package to support up to 6,000 jobs.
$280 million to continue the Transport Infrastructure Development Scheme for regional road crews working on local roads.
Leader of the Opposition
Visiting Brisbane’s south on Friday, the Leader of the Opposition committed to an investment of $14 million for an x-ray unit at Brisbane Markets, using cutting edge technology to safely sterilise cold-chain exports like mangoes and citrus without using chemicals or pesticides while maintaining freshness and consistency.
The LNP has said the project will create 80 jobs and that it forms part of a plan to double the value of Queensland agricultural production, to turn an $18 billion industry into a $60 billion industry by 2045.
On Saturday the Leader of the Opposition spent the day in Maleny in the LNP held electorate of Glass House and in Bribie Island in the LNP held electorate of Pumicestone. She used the visit to highlight previous the failure of Maleny Dairies to win a Queensland Health milk supply contract in January.
On Bribie Island Ms Frecklington announced a plan to invest $25 million to replace the marine rescue fleet. She said the plan will support boat builders and create jobs.
Sunday marked the LNP’s official campaign launch.
On Monday the Leader of the Opposition campaigned in the electorates of Lytton, Redlands and Oodgeroo. At Hemmant she announced a plan to make Queensland the “Recycling State”, with commitments to:
Build roads using recycled products, following a recent project undertaken in Cleveland;
Open a solar panel recycling facility in South-East Queensland;
Work with councils and invest $50 million to build new roads from recycled plastics and beer bottles; and
Stop valuable resources in electronic waste from going into landfill by banning batteries and e-waste from landfill.
On Tuesday Ms Frecklington headed to Keppel to campaign with LNP candidate Adrian De Groot to announce a commitment for a new $50 million destination marketing campaign. An LNP Government will also partner with CQ University to establish a Central Queensland TAFE Centre of Excellence at a cost of $49.8 million.
Prime Ministerial Intervention – To Be Continued?
In order for the Prime Minister to spend last week in Queensland, he had to stay in the ACT or any other COVID-19 ‘non-hot spot’ (like South Australia) for 14 days.
The 17th October was the last day that the Prime Minister needed to be in a COVID-19 ‘non-hotspot’ if he wishes to return to Queensland for election day. With a federal parliamentary fortnight now in session, he may avoid Sydney, as he did prior to joining Ms Frecklington on the campaign.
In Focus: The Regions
There are a number of regional seats north of the Sunshine Coast where the LNP will see opportunity and the ALP will see risk. These include Keppel, Mackay, Rockhampton and Barron River.
The seat of Keppel is held by 2nd term Labor MP Brittany Lauga on a margin of 3.1% versus One Nation. With a crowded field of seven nominations she will be pleased to have drawn first position on the ballot draw.
In 2017 she received over 43% of the primary vote, while One Nation bested the LNP for second place by less than 200 votes. With public polling showing One Nation in decline, and the pandemic potentially motivating voters to move to the more familiar major parties, which would see this seat revert to a traditional ALP v LNP contest.
A safe Labor seat on 8.3%, some in the LNP have pointed to Mackay as a potential gain.
The city falls largely within the seat of Dawson, held by conservative Nationals MP, George Christensen, and is likely to be influenced by energy and coal politics. In fact, Greens Brisbane Councillor Jonathan Sri recently pointed to a Mackay MP Julie Gilbert’s promotion of the Government’s approval of 18 new coal mines in Central Queensland (pictured). Underlining the city–country divide on the critical economic issue of coal mining.
While 8.3% movement is large, it is far from impossible. At the 2012 ‘wipeout’ election, recently deceased and much-loved MP Tim Mulherin, suffered a 16.2% swing and held the seat by a mere 0.5%. Labor must keep its primary high to wine this seat and will be looking to repeat its 2017 showing of 42.9%, with a first preference vote towards the mid-40s.
Rockhampton was another ALP v One Nation contest back in 2017 and resulted in a 5.2% win for the ALP. Last election the ALP’s primary was well down due to the popular labor-aligned Mayor Margaret Strelow running as an independent candidate, after she failed to win the party’s pre-selection.
Again energy politics and the city-country divide will play a key role in the outcome for the seat.
Barron River is a Queensland bellwether seat, tending to move with the Government of the day right back to 1974 (to be precise, apart from the 7-month period between the 1995 election and the Mundingburra by-election). The seat is currently held by affable Fire and Emergency Services Minister Craig Crawford on a margin of only 1.9%.
The key issues for the seat, north of Cairns, are roads and infrastructure, and the COVID-19 response, including its impact on tourism operators. Youth crime is an emotive and key electoral issue, with the LNP’s policy of mandatory gaol for children found guilty of three offences being heavily promoted.
An indication of how tough this seat will be for Labor is the betting market, with Sportsbet putting the LNP at $1.55 and the ALP on $2.40.
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