People’s Forum Leaders' Debate
The Sky News and Courier Mail People’s Forum probably did little to sway opinion.
Both Leaders stuck to their positions and key lines. The Premier went on the offence pointing to the LNP’s calls for the border with NSW to be opened.
The Leader of the Opposition strongly pushed a positive message, talking about her 'big bold plan for Queensland".
You can watch the full debate here.
International students ‘moment’
A brief and generally unreported moment occurred during the Leaders’ Debate when a member of the audience asked a question about the future of his international education business.
Ms Frecklington too the opportunity to accuse Ms Palaszczuk of missing an opportunity to take part in an arrangement with the Commonwealth and two States to re-start this important and highly lucrative export earner. The Premier was silent allowing Ms Frecklington to make her point, before moving onto the attack. She said that she had rejected the proposal because it did not include hotel quarantine. Ms Palaszczuk accused Ms Frecklington of now wanting to open international borders. She repeated the questions “How will hotel quarantine cope?” and “Which countries are you going to allow in?” Ms Frecklington said she was being verballed, but it appeared an important moment at the 11 minute 15 second mark of the debate.
Under cover party people
In a sign of just how difficult it is to ensure that a room of about 100 people are ‘undecided’ voters, questions came from an LNP Member (pictured with LNP former President Gary Spence), as well as a 2012 ALP candidate for Brisbane City Council’s Walter Taylor Ward.
Who won?
Of voters present 53% said the Premier won, while 30% backed Ms Frecklington, and 17% remained undecided. Some commentators criticised Ms Palaszczuk for being aggressive and speaking over her opponent, while others called Ms Frecklington defensive.
The Leaders
Both Leaders spent Wednesday in South East Queensland.
Ms Frecklington visited the Brisbane seats of McConnell, Mansfield and Aspley. She limited comments to promoting the party’s $300 car registration rebate and reduction of taxation on camper vans.
On Thursday the LNP Deputy Leader and Shadow Treasurer, Mr Tim Mander, released the Party’s costings, pledging no assets sales and no forced redundancies within the public service. He also said that while the LNP will borrow alongside the ALP, for its election commitments, it will limit this amount to $1.7, compared with the ALP’s intention to borrow $4 billion.
Neither the LNP’s pledge to ‘four-lane’ the Bruce Highway from Curra to Cairns (estimated at $33 billion), nor the Bradfield Scheme (estimated at $15 billion), will receive significant funding over the first 4 years of an LNP Government. Sending during this period will likely be limited to investments in planning and design.
On Thursday the Premier visited several Gold Coast seats, saying that they had been taken for granted and that “It’s about time the people of the Gold Coast can send the LNP a message…”
She also visited the marginal seat of Mansfield in Brisbane’s south with local MP, Corinne McMillan and the headed to Caloundra on the Sunshine Coast
On Friday the Premier announced the Chief Health Officer's decision to open Queensland to all of NSW, apart from the 32 Local Government Areas of Greater Sydney. The CHO was called on to explain her decision.
Will the Boomers boom?
The following table from the Australian Newspaper sets out LNP held marginal seats with over-65 populations above the state average of 15.8%.
A theory has gained traction among pundits that the LNP’s massive advantage among this age-group will be damaged due to the “gratitude” of voters who feel that the government has prioritised their safety and health.
A similar argument is being made in the US election and is said to be showing-up in polling advantages for the Democrats among older Floridians.
It is true that swinging voters in this age group are likely to respond positively to a health, safety and security message. This is particularly the case when set against an Opposition which has been critical of border restrictions. A ‘gratitude’ effect among long-time conservative and LNP voters is probably going too far. However, an improvement of the ALP’s vote among swinging voters in this age group will make a difference.
An improvement for the ALP of say, 3% to 4% in this demographic, in seats like Pumicestone, Currumbin and Bonney, will all but wipe out the LNP’s advantage. In Caloundra and Glass House, margins of just over 3%, start to look like margins of just over 2%, substantially tightening the race.
Some oddities of a COVID election
Maslow’s hierarchy of needs and conservative voters
Political parties at election time must do 2 things. They must retain the support of their base, while extending their appeal to voters nearer the centre. To hold its base, the LNP focuses policies and rhetoric on core LNP values like personal choice, economic freedom and limiting the size and role of the state.
However at this election, the pandemic may have re-drawn battle lines.
During a crisis it is worth considering Maslow’s hierarchy of needs, which tells us that during a crisis people place the basic human necessities of food, shelter and safety at the centre of their decision making. This is particularly the case for conservative voters who are more likely to value the comfort, safety and security of domestic border restrictions during a pandemic. This is similar to the way that these voters value police in times of high crime; or strong national borders in times of uncontrolled immigration.
The irony of this is that each time the LNP has pressured the Premier to open the Queensland border in support of the core value of economic freedom, they may have actually served to alienate conservative voters who rate safety very highly, while simultaneously strengthening people’s trust in the Premier. There is a limit to this reasoning however, should voters come to believe border decisions are being made on the basis of political interests.
Do the regions feel safe from COVID-19?
Despite Queensland’s regional communities experiencing very few cases of COVID-19, there is anecdotal evidence that voters outside of South East Queensland nonetheless continue to have a heightened level of concern about the disease. Recall the KAP’s call for the Premier to “Close the North Queensland Border” at the height of the pandemic in State.
Euthanasia
A commitment by the ALP to introduce euthanasia legislation by February next year, would become a major political issue in most campaigns. While it has received some coverage, both parties have, for their own reasons, chosen to limit commentary.
The weather, early voting and late postals
South East Queensland is forecast to experience 'monsoonal' weather conditions on 31 October. While many have already voted, it is difficult to predict the impact of extreme weather conditions on the poll outcome.
Over one million early votes have been cast, while nearly 900,000 postal votes have been issued by the Electoral Commission of Queensland (ECQ). At the time of writing, just under half of issued postal votes have been completed and returned.
There has been some media speculation about the impact of a slow postal service on the election. The ‘famous’ Mundingburra by-election resulted from an electoral challenge principally based on 22 overseas military personnel not getting to vote, due to the late arrival of a plane from Rwanda. The challenge succeeded because the seat was won by a margin of only 16 votes. At an election involving hundreds of thousands of postal votes, and where many seats are on a knife’s edge, late postal votes may be critical to the outcome.
Seats to watch
The seats to watch have not much changed over the course of the election. We have managed to discuss many of them in some detail during the campaign and they cover the length and breadth of the State. Roughly a third of all seats are currently considered in contention.
Right now the key is determining how will these seats make up a pathway to victory. A few key questions here are:
Can Labor make up for likely losses in the North with wins elsewhere in the State, such as on the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast?
Will Labor’s regional centres stay strong or even "come home” in some cases?
Has the LNP Leader managed to overcome a year in the shadow of COVID-19, to establish herself and her party’s economic message?
Some scenarios and predictions
This is Queensland we are talking about and anything could happen. The electorate’s volatility is legend. It is a global leader in the field. All things remain possible.
That said, there are three outcomes considered most likely at this poll. The following details tell a story to illustrate a pathway for how things might unfold and are not intended to be seat-by-seat predictions.
Scenario 1: Everything goes wrong for the ALP
Voters in the South East want a change and have listened to the LNP’s economic message.
Voters in the North have ben convinced by the LNP’s law and order policies, while older voters considering ALP support have been frightened by text messages they have received talking about Labor’s 20% death tax and have switched back to the LNP
The ALP loses 4 or more seats across North Queensland (NQ) and Far North Queensland (FNQ)
The seats of Keppel, Mackay and Rockhampton fall to either the LNP or One Nation
The LNP wins Whitsunday and Noosa, and either Mansfield or Aspley
The ALP fails to win any of the high opportunity seats on the Gold Coast or Sunshine Coast
The ALP loses South Brisbane to the Greens
The rest of “Fortress Brisbane” holds strong for the ALP and the party’s margin even increase in some seats
Outcome: LNP minority government with the support of Katter’s Australian Party and One Nation, if necessary.
Scenario 2: ALP retains or strengthens majority
Voters have heard the ALP’s COVID-19 messages. They feel like the State is generally on the right track and there is enough of an economic recovery story for them to understand and have some confidence in the future.
The Leader of the Opposition has had a strong and effective campaign, but is simply not sufficiently well known across the State
The ALP holds nearly all of its NQ and FNQ seats; and holds its regional Queensland seats
The ALP wins two seats on the Gold Coast, one seat on the Sunshine Coast, as well as Bundaberg, making-up for losses in the North
Outcome: The ALP is elected with a majority of between 2 and 5 seats.
Scenario 3: ALP minority
The LNP’s messaging resonates in NQ and FNQ. The ALP’s messaging resonates in Brisbane
The ALP loses 3 seats across NQ and FNQ to the LNP; South Brisbane is won by the Greens; and Keppel goes to the LNP or One Nation - or a Brisbane seat goes to the LNP
The ALP wins Pumicestone and holds Gaven, but does not win any other seats in the South East, despite tantalisingly close margins on the Gold and Sunshine Coasts
The LNP wins Whitsunday, but loses a seat unexpectedly to an independent or minor party such as in Oodgeroo or Burdekin
Outcome: The ALP is able to form a minority government with the support of Ms Sandy Bolton from Noosa and 2 Greens or KAP.
On balance, C&C Co’s call is that Scenario 2 is the most representative of the likely outcome. With so many seats remaining genuinely in contention however, all these scenarios are highly credible. It appears improbable that the LNP will achieve a majority in its own right.
This is based on:
A campaign generally free of gaffes, scandals, gotchas, dirty tricks or an overwhelming mood for change – therefore limiting the likelihood for wild swings against the incumbent government
Recognition that the Government’s health response has enabled the Queensland economy to ‘open-up’ in a controlled way, together with continuing community support for border restrictions. At the same time there is likely to be relief about further loosening of restrictions
Genuine and general recognition of the Premier’s strength in continually resisting calls from the Prime Minister, the Federal Treasurer, the New South Wales Premier, a former QLD ALP Premier, the LNP Opposition and some vocal business leaders
Continued support for the Premier in regional Queensland
The potential for a minor but useful movement of support to the ALP among over-65 voters
An observation that the Leader of the Opposition has had a good campaign, but has perhaps needed to spend more time campaigning in held seats than would be ideal.
When will we know?
At the 2015 and 2017 elections the ECQ took around 2 weeks to declare results. The 2020 election is likely to be complicated and counting slowed by the sheer logistics of so many Queenslanders voting early and remotely.
Election night will see vote counts surge and tallied-up as large numbers of prepolls are counted.
Postal votes available to the ECQ will also be counted following the close of polling.
‘On-the-day’ votes, cast in the traditional way, will also filter in. At the 2017 election, just over 57% of votes were cast in this way. On Saturday closer to a third of votes are expected to be cast in this way.
Election analysist Antony Green has said that he expects a result to be known fairly quickly. He argues that this is assisted by the fact that Queensland only has one House of Parliament to count, avoiding messy and complicated upper house counts.
Two issues though will slow postal vote counting. Firstly, the sheer time taken to open and check nearly 900,000 possible postal ballots. Also, many postal votes are likely to be received by the ECQ after election day. Postal votes received by the ECQ by 6:00 pm on Tuesday 10 November will be counted. If sufficient postal votes are outstanding, it may not be numerically possible to declare the outcome for some seats until after 10 November.
In addition, there is the time it will take to conduct a count with physical distancing being enforced. ECQ election workers are used to standing shoulder-to-shoulder, closely scrutinising ballot papers one-by-one. Physical distancing will prevent the simple process of workers looking closely at a ballot paper together, discussing whether the vote has been validly cast. Instead something akin to an expressive dance will take its place. Workers will need to explain an issue with a ballot, place the ballot down, then step away - while expertly reapplying sanitiser - as they provide space for a supervisor to consider their point. Should back-and-forth discussion be required, a single ballot could require an inordinate amount of time to decide.
The increase in pre-polls and postal voting will make predictions and projections on the night more difficult. Postal votes for example are normally expected to favour the conservative side of politics, but this cannot be assumed in 2020 by any means.
What’s next
Firstly, thanks you for taking the time to follow our coverage over the last 4 weeks.
C&C Co will keep a close eye on the count and where there is a substantial event or outcome, we’ll provide further updates.
God bless our democracy.
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