They are Off and Running!
As was widely expected, the Premier has visited Governor Paul de Jersey to ask him to dissolve the Queensland Parliament and to issue writs for an election in each of Queensland’s 93 electorates on October 31. This marks the official commencement of the campaign.
New Polling
Previous public polling published in early June 2020, undertaken by YouGov Galaxy, had the LNP leading Labor, 52 per cent to 48 per cent.
New polling published in the Courier Mail over the weekend, timed to coincide with the commencement of the campaign, indicated a reversal of these numbers, with the ALP now in front. While somewhat heralded by the news media, this statewide figure almost doesn’t matter because elections are won seat-by-seat and demographic-by-demographic. At the regional level the results of the YouGov polling are fascinating. The three regions covered are Greater Brisbane, the Coasts (Gold and Sunshine) and the Regions (the rest of the State).
Greater Brisbane
Labor maintains a strong position, on 57 per cent of the two-party preferred (2PP) vote, albeit with a 1% swing to the LNP when compared with the 2017 election.
The polling indicates a 3% primary vote increase for the Greens. This increases the vulnerability of a number of inner-Brisbane seats, while the minor party is looking increasingly likely to hold its seat of Maiwar.
The Coasts
The Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast are traditionally strongholds for the LNP, with only one seat for each not held by the LNP.
The new poll sees a 6 per cent increase in Labor’s primary, to 33 per cent, and a large drop in the One Nation vote, from 12 per cent at the 2017 election, to 7 per cent now. On a 2PP basis, the LNP has lost 3 per cent of its support, which has the potential to impact seats like Bonney and Currumbin on the Gold Coast, and Caloundra on the Sunshine Coast.
The Regions
The poll’s “everywhere else” category covers the remaining expanse of Queensland’s regions.
Like too-little butter over too-much bread, the poll lacks sufficient coverage. However, perhaps its most startling revelation is a 7 per cent fall in primary support for One Nation, falling from 21 per cent in 2017, to 14 per cent today. Katter’s Australian Party has dropped 1 per cent of its support.
The ALP has picked up 2 per cent primary support, while the LNP has picked up 4 per cent. A 2PP of 53 per cent LNP vote to Labor’s 47 per cent, provides an overall swing of one per cent to the LNP since the last election.
Regional Queensland may be moving to the safety of the major political parties in the face of the economic and health challenges facing the State.
No Deals but the LNP to Put Labor Last
Consistent with the "First Act" of most election campaign, minority government speculation and preference deals have received much focus in recent days.
Both the Premier and the Leader of the Opposition have made it clear that they will not do a deal with a minor party to support a minority government.
Since the 2017 election, there has been an ongoing debate as to whether the LNP should place the Greens ahead of Labor in seats like South Brisbane and McConnell. The LNP has gone a step further, announcing it will preference the Greens ahead of Labor in every seat.
The tactic is intended to cause trouble for Labor by encouraging LNP voters to replace them with Greens MPs.
Since the Labor-Green Accord was struck after the 1989 Tasmanian election, the ALP has feared the prospect of governing with the support, and at the whim of the Greens.
The tactic will have an impact where the Greens and Labor place first and second. LNP voters’ ballots would then be redistributed in order of preference, with the potential to direct sufficient conservative voters to elect Greens candidates.
The LNP, who are highly critical of the Greens as "extremists" and "economic wreckers", will have the challenge of explaining why they have decided to help the party to win seats. Watch this space as the campaign goes on. When the tactic was employed by the Liberal Party during the 2010 Victorian election it received extensive criticism. The Liberals were elected with a small majority, for a single term.
One Nation and Katter’s Australian Party have announced they will issue split how-to-vote cards, essentially making no suggestion to voters as to which major party they should preference first.
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