With a Queensland General Election to be held on 31 October, there are less than 30 days before counting commences.
Over October, C&C Co will provide regular updates and help you to know what to look out for.
There'll be grand events, 'gotchas' and gaffs.
What is Different in 2020?
There are three genuinely different aspects of this election:
· Fixed date: The date has been set in stone since the establishment of fixed term voting for Queensland general elections.
· Four-year term: The next term of Parliament formed will run for four years. This is the first four-year fixed term, with the next election due on 26 October 2024.
· A polling "period”: Due to Covid 19 and the need to avoid large numbers of electors congregating on polling day, the Electoral Commission of Queensland (ECQ) has established a polling period. Electors are able to make an early request for a postal ballot (since 14 September); attend a pre-poll from 19 October at 200 polling places across Queensland; or simply attend on the day.
While the election date has been known for some time, an official marker of the start of the campaign is Monday October 6, when caretaker conventions enter into force (see below).
Current State of the Parties: the Numbers
Queensland’s unicameral Parliament is made up of 93 seats or constituencies. To form Government a majority a party must achieve the support of 47 MPs.
The 2017 Queensland election saw the Palaszczuk Government elected with a majority of the vote, with 51.2 per cent of the two party preferred count, versus the LNP’s 48.8 per cent.
Current Parliament seats held:
Australian Labor Party 48
Liberal National Party 38
Katter's Australian Party(KAP) 3
Greens 1
North Queensland First 1
Independent 1
What will happen? Some scenarios
In short, no one knows.
The May 2019 Federal election put a large dent in reliance on public polling data. For other electoral events like the 2016 US Election, the 2016 EU ‘Brexit’ Referendum, public polling completely misread sentiment.
In the 2020 Queensland election, there are three possible outcomes:
A returned majority ALP Government
An LNP majority government, or
A minority government formed by a major party, with the support of the cross-bench KAP, Greens or Independent MPs.
A majority LNP Government requires the party to win-over nine seats, while retaining all of its current seats. A tall but not impossible order. Alternatively, the party could achieve a net gain of 6 seats and look to the KAP to support a Frecklington minority government.
For the ALP Government to be returned it must either retain its current representation, or in the event of a loss of more than one seat, look for a minor party support to get to the magic 47 seats.
While the Government has performed well over the last three years, particularly in response to Covid 19, there are signs that the electorate is looking down the track, to Queensland’s economic recovery. The Government cannot rest on its laurels, as the Queensland public is well known for punishing political parties who appear complacent or self-satisfied.
Key Issues
Covid 19
Queensland has enjoyed an extraordinarily effective response to Covid 19, while similarly sized states in the United States, or countries internationally have suffered many thousands of deaths.
Alabama, South Carolina and Minnesota, all around the same population size as Queensland with 5 million inhabitants, have suffered far more greatly at the hands of this disease. In terms of detected cases, they have respectively suffered 156,000 cases (2550 deaths); 148,000 cases (3400 deaths); and 100,000 cases (2100 deaths).
Sweden’s population which is double Queensland’s at 10 million, has suffered close to 100,000 cases and 6000 deaths.
The Economy
The Queensland economy has been immeasurably damaged by Covid 19.
While comparisons with other states on a number of measures are favourable, there is no doubt that the economy and especially employment continues to weigh heavily on the minds of electors.
The Government has made a slew of job generating announcements, focused on both regional employment as well as infrastructure development.
The LNP’s Bradfield Scheme, if feasible, is an epochal investment into two of Queensland’s most significant challenges – water storage and availability, and flooding. While more detail is sure to be shared during the campaign, the scheme will feature heavily in the party’s pitch to the regions.
The City-Region Divide
Queensland is this country’s most decentralised state. The difficulties of distributing funding between the State’s cities, regional centres, rural towns and communities, through to the most remote places on the planet, is a never-ending ‘wicked’ problem.
It is a favoured view in Queensland’s regions that resources revenue should be invested where the resources are extracted. Regional investments like the Townsville stadium, Cairns Convention Centre, or civic level investments in roads and local facilities are seen as a fair a minor contribution compared with how much the regions contribute.
Ongoing and likely accelerating growth, particularly if a post-Covid world eventuates, will see the need for further infrastructure investments on in the South East. Investments of around $5.4 billion in the Cross River Rail project, and hundreds of millions on trams on the Gold Coast, or M1 and Bruce Highway upgrades are perhaps seen by some in regions, as one-sided, profligate and unwarranted largesse for the South East.
The challenge for Queensland’s Government is to allocate and distribute spending in a manner which will be seen as fair by those living in the cities of the South East and in the regions.
Key Seats and People
As is the case with most modern elections, the 2020 poll will be decided across a handful of seats. We’ll discuss some of these seats over the coming weeks including:
Cairns Region – Cairns, Barron River
Townsville and Whitsunday Region – Thuringowa, Mundingburra, Townsville, Whitsunday
Central Queensland - Keppel
Gold Coast – Gaven, Burleigh, Bonney
Greater Brisbane – Aspley, Mansfield, Pumicestone, South Brisbane, McConnell
Over the coming weeks, we will provide analysis and insight into the races which will decide Queensland’s next government.
We will also provide background on some of the key political 'playmakers' in the major and minor parties.
What are the Caretaker Conventions?
During the caretaker period, through to the completion of the poll and the formation of a new government, the incumbent government will not make substantial decisions, except in special circumstances. In these circumstances, the government will generally consult with the Leader of the Opposition. For example, in response to an emergency, the Government will consult with the Opposition, especially where significant funding or policy decisions are required.
During these times of “norm-busting” in politics across the world, it is important to remember that this is a just a convention but one which has generally been well respected.
During their campaigns political parties will announce commitments for what they will do during the next term of Parliament, should they be elected to government.
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